Advanced driver-assist systems (ADAS) will have a $102bn (£66bn) ‘opportunity’ by 2030, up from $2.4bn today, as carmakers add automation features, according to Lux Research.
Sensors will account for 23% of the opportunity, while the connectivity and apps segment takes a higher 28% share and software to co-ordinate sensor fusion and enable critical safety operations will claim 25%, the research firm states.
“ADAS technologies open the automotive market opportunity to new players from the software and hardware worlds, with each aiming to create as much value as possible by consolidating capabilities and offering platforms that enable ‘plug-and-play’ autonomy,” says Maryanna Saenko of Lux.
Cars with basic driver-assist features, like parking assistance, are a potential $29.6bn market by 2022, but enhanced features such as adaptive cruise control and lane merge offer a $73bn opportunity in 2030.
Partial autonomy features – like self-driving on the highway – will be slow to roll out over the next 10 years, before growing to a $22.7bn opportunity by 2030, the firm suggests. In the most likely case, fully autonomous cars will not hit the market before 2030, largely because of regulations and a current lack of prototypes.
Enhanced driver-assist features will add $527 to the price of new cars in 2020, and $481 per car in 2030. The bulk of the additional cost arises from software – $367 in 2020, and $220 per car in 2030 – while connectivity will account for $160 per car in 2020 and $261 in 2030.
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